Iraqi referandum

The voting process has started.

I'm going to come out and say that I hope the Sunnis are able to strike down the constitution. To do this, they need a 2/3 no vote in 3 separate provinces. What is a Sunni insurgent going to think if the constitution passes? He is going to have proof that the political process doesn't work, hes going to be further convinced that Sunnis will be marginalized in the new Iraq. His *only* option to combat the situation is more violence. What if the Sunnis are able to strike down the constitution? "Wow, we went and voted, but we didn't actually think it would actually work!". Suddenly you do have an alternative to violent means to combat the new government - with a vote. Perhaps this would take the sting out of the insurgency.

If the constitution is confirmed, it may not prove to be a horrible outcome, though. Just before the election, the Iraqi Islamic Party (a Sunni party) had agreed to endorse the constitution in exchange for a promise that it would be potentially amended next April. Naturally, a lot of Sunnis were really pissed about this. If the Iraqi government follows through with this promise, and amends the constitution to be more appealing to the Sunnis, it will again show that compromise and democracy can work.

The absolute worst case scenario either way is if Sunni turnout is very low. This is what Al-Qaeda in Iraq wants, and rightfully so. A low Sunni turnout would indicate that there is going to be no way to politically bring them into the new government; nothing short of civil war would be required to stop the insurgency. This is why Al Qaeda has threatened Sunnis with violence if they vote at all. It may turn out that this move is yet another blunder by Al Qaeda; these threats have been perceived by Sunnis to be meddling by outsiders into their affairs. They already do not agree with many of Zarqawi's tactics; who knows, they may vote just to defy Al Qaeda.