Saturday, November 05, 2005

A reason to stay the course.

In today's Iraq, we mistakenly assume violence is everywhere all of the time, and that every Iraqi hates Americans. Certainly the Sunni Arabs hate Americans; the Shia generally probably aren't too fond of us (but at least aren't trying to kill our soldiers). The Kurds, however, love America and what we have done. In the north, they are prospering like never before. They have stability and relative safety in their region, mainly because they have a hundred thousand armed militia men keeping order. Their economy is booming to such an extent that Arabs from the rest of Iraq travel to the Kurdish north looking for work. They are politically united, and Kurds hold many positions in the new Iraqi government.

The Kurds are the largest ethnic group in the world without a homeland. They have been oppressed virtually everywhere they have lived, including Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. A few significant instances:

1980 - The Iran-Iraq war affects Kurds in both countries. Support to either government by Kurds could cause repercussions for Kurds in the other country. Both governments send Kurds to the frontlines. More than 1 million die on both sides.

1988 - The genocidal Anfal-campaign is being carried out by the Iraqi government to "decrease" the Kurds. Some 4500 villages are completely destroyed, and 182,000 Kurds are relocated to unknown destinations, in this year alone.

1988 - The Halabja-disaster on the 16th of March, with intensive aerial chemical bombing (by Saddam's regime), such as Nerve gas, VX and Mustard gas, kills more than 5000 Kurds and wounds an estimated 12,000.

1991 - A popular uprising by the Kurds, encouraged by George Bush Sr. ignites, after the Iraqi defeat of the Persian Gulf war. The uprising is initially successful, but government forces crack down; causing more than 2 million Kurds to flee to Turkey and Iran. Thousands die of starvation, cold and hunger.

These people have been through enough. They deserve their freedom (truly, freedom, and not Bush rhetoric), but there is no way they could have it if America pulled out of Iraq. If we pulled out, the Iraqi government would collapse, and the Kurds would attempt to secede and form their own country. Alone, they would fail - if not by Iraqi Arab hands, then by those of the Iranians or Turks, who would likely invade from the north and dissolve such a nation. Turkey for example would have a lot to lose if Iraqi Kurds formed a separate state, because Turkish Kurds might try to secede from Turkey and join those in Iraq.

If America remains in Iraq, there are really only two possible outcomes, both of which are favorable to Kurds. The first would be if (ideally) the Sunnis abandon the insurgency and get involved in the political process. Iraq would become stable, and the Kurds would be well represented politically for the first time in their history. Alternatively, if the Sunnis refused to abandon their campaign of violence, the country would partition. The Kurds would form their own country, and it would be safe from guerilla and suicide attacks thanks to the Kurdish militia men providing security. The new nation would be vulnerable to invasion from an armored modern military; this is where the US should step in. We should provide a partitioned Kurdistan with conventional military protection against any potential invader. This is the type of support that America is good at; straight up fighting and none of this guerilla warfare / insurgency mess. In all likelihood we wouldn't even need to do any fighting, since no country would be stupid enough to pick a conventional fight with the United States.

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