Surprise, Al Qaeda is beaten.

An internal Al Qaeda document was captured in Iraq. It is translated and analyzed here. The situation for Al Qaeda in Iraq is fairly desperate.

And yet, that has been obvious for months. Just because Al Qaeda is beaten in Iraq doesn't mean our mission is accomplished. There is still a powerful insurgency comprised of native Sunni Arabs. There remains a high risk of outright civil war. This battle hasn't been won yet. So while I certainly loath those Americans who would portray the cause as lost and futile, some on the right who are trumpeting Al Qaeda's defeat as being equivalent to our victory are equally wrong.

It will all come down to the new Iraqi government. If they can negotiate compromises, and continue to draw Sunnis into the government, then this thing will work (albeit with violence continuing for years). Alternatively, failure of the Iraqi government to move forward could spell disaster for the entire mission.

One final point. I keep hearing people (from the anti-war left) claiming that the presence of American troops is driving the insurgency. This convenient position has no basis in reality. If the insurgents were really interested in removing foreign troops, they could do it politically, and they know it. They're fighting because they (Sunni Arabs) don't want to share power with the Shia or Kurds.

Right now, with 150,000 American troops and an ever stronger Iraqi military, the insurgents know they cannot win. They are hoping that the removal of the main power in Iraq (US troops) will give them their chance to take over. If American troops were to pull out, the sides would become fairly balanced; the fragile Iraqi government and military on one side, and the well trained and well armed Sunni insurgents on the other. That is a real civil war.

Now isn't the time to surrender. We need to give the new Iraqi government time to negotiate and work things out. If it fails, we bounce. But as long as it continues to move forward, we should be there to back it up.