Thursday, January 08, 2009

What did I think two years ago?

In the summer of 2006, Israel went to war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. This event was shortly after the Indian train bombings that killed so many. Here was what I was thinking then.

Almost three years later we see a similar situation. India was just attacked by Pakistani-based terrorists and again their response was reserved. Israel was attacked with rockets by a non-state actor (Hamas instead of Hezbollah) and again they have escalated the situation.

One interesting event happened today, though. Someone, a few rogue men in Lebanon perhaps, launched rockets at Israel from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah went to extra effort to assure the Israelis that it was not them who shot at Israel. Seems odd for the party that "won" in 2006 to sound so conciliatory. At any rate, Hezbollah has rearmed and has more rockets now in southern Lebanon than they did before. The international community demanded a cease-fire then, but the problem festers to this day.

I am not sure what the Israeli agenda is right now, nor whether or not they will accomplish it. My feelings are different than they were in 2006. Then, I thought the Israeli action was foolish, because Hezbollah did not want war but Israel over-reacted and forced them into one. It would have been like the US going to war with the Soviets over a small cold war skirmish - not worth it. The situation today is completely different. Hamas wants war, as do the people who elected them. The Israelis want war too. So fine, let them have it. Solving their problems through violence is a novel approach that hasn't been tried before, after all. /sarcasm

----------------------- Update -----------------

I really hope the Israelis have an important strategic objective in mind. Something that isn't readily obvious to the amateur observer. Otherwise they're going to look bad when this is over. Their current leadership doesn't have my confidence, for the record. They screwed up in 2006 and the smart money says they're screwing up now. Who knows, though. Maybe they know something we don't.

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