Sunday, February 07, 2010

Congratulations Saints!

The Saints were my favorite team in the NFL other than the Colts. They played exceptionally well in the Super Bowl, and they definitely had more heart than the Colts. Congratulations to them and to the city of New Orleans.

Anyway, I still feel like karma had it out for the Colts. Throwing away a chance at a perfect season for no reason isn't something the New Orleans Saints ever would have contemplated. For the record, I also don't think Peyton Manning's interception was what lost us the game. Even if we had scored a TD there, the Saints would have gotten the ball back with 2-3 minutes and 3 time outs, and the Colts defense had not even slowed the Saints offense all game. The Saints would have scored again. The defense didn't play well tonight, and I think that was a bigger factor than Peyton Manning's interception.

I would also like to mention one more thing. Sean Payton has some serious guts. Going for that onside kick at the start of the 2nd half was incredibly risky. If it wouldn't have worked, the Colts might have gone up 17-6 and the game suddenly starts to look a whole lot different. Especially following the 4th and 2 call on the goal line, Sean Payton would have been crucified for that decision had the Saints ultimately lost.

Thats one of the interesting things about the NFL. Statisticians have shown convincingly that coaches should punt far less often than they do, and that teams should go for a touchdown instead of a field goal more often than they do. One of the reasons I think that we don't see this is because the outcome for the coach himself is not proportional to the decisions. Going for it on 4th down, passing up a field goal, or attempting an unexpected onside kick has some benefit for the coach when it pays off. "Oh, that was gutsy and a great call". But when it doesn't work out, you have half of a city clamoring for the coach's job.

Look at Bill Belichick. He went for it against the Colts on 4th and 2 and statisticians pretty much unanimously agree that it was a great call. But it didn't work out that time, and people in New England were calling for his head. When making unorthodox calls, the cost-benefit comparison is much worse for the coach than the actual call is for the outcome of the game.

No comments: