Saturday, January 29, 2011
Amazing how quickly things happen
Mubarak's security forces have withdrawn from the streets and are now surrounding the presidential palace. The army was called in - but is doing nothing, and if anything the soldiers are starting to take part in the protests. The protesters already smell blood metaphorically speaking in the firing of Mubarak's cabinet. They also smell blood literally. When this sort of thing was happening in Iran a couple of years ago, someone pointed out that if the government security forces are going to spill blood, they need to spill a LOT of blood. Only killing a few people just pisses the crowd off even more. Mubarak personally is a more challenging position than the Iranians were though, because Mubarak couldn't just start massacring protesters like the Iranians did without alienating his important Western allies. Its hard for anyone to know, but it seems to me that a threshold of no return has been passed. Now that the security forces are gone, there is nothing to get the crowds off of the streets. At this point I can't see how Mubarak does not fall.