Saturday, January 29, 2011

Amazing how quickly things happen

Mubarak's security forces have withdrawn from the streets and are now surrounding the presidential palace. The army was called in - but is doing nothing, and if anything the soldiers are starting to take part in the protests. The protesters already smell blood metaphorically speaking in the firing of Mubarak's cabinet. They also smell blood literally. When this sort of thing was happening in Iran a couple of years ago, someone pointed out that if the government security forces are going to spill blood, they need to spill a LOT of blood. Only killing a few people just pisses the crowd off even more. Mubarak personally is a more challenging position than the Iranians were though, because Mubarak couldn't just start massacring protesters like the Iranians did without alienating his important Western allies. Its hard for anyone to know, but it seems to me that a threshold of no return has been passed. Now that the security forces are gone, there is nothing to get the crowds off of the streets. At this point I can't see how Mubarak does not fall.


Dad said...

Humm... Maybe President Bush Jr was right. Since Iraq: Tunisa, Egypt, Jordon and Saudi Arabia have all had democratic protests. The US should support the democratic process,it's been coming for some time now. Even if Mubarak's is upset, he's up in his years, and his time is limited anyway. Mubarak is in the position to go to the people and proclaim Jan 29,2011 as independence day, and go down in history. A democratic Egypt will result in more stability in the region, improved infrastructure and services driven by free market. Hopefully, Saudi Arabia is next, since most extremism, and anti-western teachings were allowed by the Saudi Kings in Wahhabi schools.

Nicholas said...

I agree. In the short-term, a democratic Egypt could be a little uncomfortable but it is definitely the best for the long-term. I hope Saudi Arabia is next too.