Sunday, April 02, 2006

Zarqawi got fired?

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, has evidently been sacked for making strategic mistakes. Such mistakes include the indiscriminate bombing of Shia civilians, attacking Iraq's neighbors (Jordan), and killing certain Sunni Arab leaders. These things have been extremely counterproductive for the insurgency.

I find it very surprising that the insurgency in Iraq has such a level of organization and centralization that they can just fire Zarqawi. A bit unsettling, too. A good summary of the insurgency here from the International Crisis Group.

Gregory Djerejian from the Belgravia Dispatch, while commenting on the above ICG summary, reflects on why he voted for Bush and not Kerry. His reasoning is identical to my own:

"Needless to say, the Iraqi insurgency is not defeated. Equally needless to say, their chances of victory will be exponentially enhanced if a too speedy U.S. withdrawal is pursued. This was one of the very key reasons I supported Bush, as I judged him much more likely than Kerry to keep our forces in theater for the duration. We can quibble about that, and my disgust at this Administration's frequent incompetence has been blogged frequently in this space, but I still believe we'd have well fewer than 133,000 or so troops in theater today if Kerry had prevailed, based on his campaign utterances and the view among rank and file Democrats about the Iraq war. This would likely mean that sectarian violence would today be even more intense than it has been to date, as fewer U.S. forces would be available to attempt to keep a lid on the nascent civil war. Further, I believe we've made significant headway, of late, in peeling off some moderate Sunnis away from the insurgency. I know too that coalition authorities have, on occasion, attempted to raid Shi'a-run detention centers, or have, of late, more proactively monitored other abuses of power by nascent Iraqi police units or Interior Ministry authorities, so as to attempt to ensure gross abuses are reined in."

A final note. A few posts down I mention that Bush sent a letter to the Grand Ayatolla Ali al-Sistani in which he asks Sistani to help break the government deadlock. I had a few concerns about the impact the letter would have on Sistani's reputation. According to Juan Cole, Sistani "blew off Bush" and didn't even bother to open the letter. Brilliant.

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