He looked like it for a while. However, Romney and Guliani just keep falling. Huckabee is clearly not intelligent enough to win an election. And the GOP base absolutely despises McCain. I'm not sure they're going to let him get it. Thompson is still their only realistic alternative.
...and right now, Thompson to win the GOP nomination on Intrade is worth about 0.8. In other words, you'll get 120:1 odds on Thompson if you buy now. I've mentioned before, intrade is not about picking winners or losers. Its about recognizing when a contract is undervalued or overvalued and trading accordingly.