The latest numbers from Intrade, regarding the GOP nomination:
McCain - 28%
Guliani - 24%
Romney - 23%
Huckabee - 13%
Paul - 7%
Thompson - 3%
It is still a very close race. McCain has momentum on his side, however. Just a few weeks ago, McCain was only 8% while Guliani was 47%. Meanwhile, Romney looks stronger on paper than in reality. He seems to be on the verge of losing Iowa to Huckabee; meanwhile, McCain has surged and looks to steal New Hampshire away from Romney as well.
Here are the Intrade numbers for the Democrat Presidential nomination:
Clinton - 63%
Obama - 31%
Edwards - 5%
Not much has changed. Clinton is still a 2:1 favorite over Obama, and Edwards is the only other Dem even on the radar. However, its an interesting situation. I don't really understand all of the implications of the caucus system, but things aren't as clear cut as they look. Obama is poised to win Iowa. Obama and HRC are almost dead even in New Hampshire. I wonder if a win in Iowa could give Obama the momentum to win in NH? Obama already has a lead in South Carolina, so its very possible, perhaps even likely, that Obama will win the first three contests. And yet, the Intrade numbers strongly favor Clinton. There is probably quite a bit that I do not understand about this system.
I'll finish by copy/pasting an old post regarding the election:
Making predictions 1.5 years out: The straight-talk express, John McCain, gets the republican ticket. McCain beats Hillary if she gets the dem ticket. McCain loses to Obama if he gets the dem ticket. If the race came down to McCain vs Obama, I wouldn't need to vote. Well lets face it, I'm from Indiana so I dont *need* to vote anyway.
Recent polls have indeed shown that McCain beats HRC and loses to Obama.